Forecasting: The Importance Of Forecasting In Business

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Forecasting is not a new concept; it had been in practice for decades. Bates and Granger (1969) suggested that the forecaster should put effort to combine forecasts in order to deliver a precise forecast. Levin (1966) explained that forming several simple forecasting models with all available data to calculate average rather are more accurate than forming one dominant model. His argument was supported by Bates and Granger (1969), Makridakis and Winkler (1983), Ogburn (1946) and Armstrong (1968). Several studies have been identified the importance of developing the forecast of organization’s sales (McCarthy et al., 2006, August, Mentzer & Kahn, 1995a and Moon et al., 2000). Time series has been very effective in reasoning the quantitative methods…show more content…
From the point of ordering raw materials to finished goods; forecasting plays a major role in almost all the stages in the manufacturing to sales and marketing. As a small scale manufacturing business, it is very important to use accurate forecasting methods in order to survival and developing in competitive business environment. Ran Polypacks frequently use judgmental methods for forecasting. However, in addition to judgmental forecasting, some qualitative methods also been applied in order to get more accurate forecasting findings. Scenario planning method as well as panel approached will be used due to the less availability of the past data. However, due to inaccurate forecasting, production cost has gone up as management failed to identify sales trends. Therefore, discrepancies between the supply and demand lead to a huge profit loss. In addition to that, extra cost was incurred for buying more raw materials at additional cost as the inventory forecasting was not up to date. Moreover, less attention to forecasting planning caused numerous problems in all the areas of the company. However, management has discovered the forecasting methods currently being used need to be improved rapidly in order to identify the sales trends an increase the sales volume as well as improve the productivity by avoiding…show more content…
Simple judgmental forecasting methods should be diminished gradually. Following recommendations been made in order to rectify the issues • Introduce quantitative forecasting methods like time series analysis, rolling averages and regression analysis. • Implement new data collecting system for forecasting purpose • Arrange training programs to familiarize with the systems and new approaches. The above mentioned recommendations should be introduced in timely manner within specific but relevant framework. Frequent training program should be introduced in order to familiarize to the system in a short period of time. Implementation of new IT system to collect data will help improve the quality of proposed quantitative
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