Hubbert's Model Analysis

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Hubbert’s model, introduced in 1956, is an empirical model based on two main assumptions. The first assumption states that, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero then, after passing through one maximum, declines again to zero. The second assumption states that the area under the production rate VS. time curve is equal to the ultimate oil recovery as time approaches infinity. In other words, Hubbert’s model shows that for any hydrocarbon producing basin or region, the rate of petroleum production will always follow a bell shaped curve. The production rate will always tend to increase at the beginning of production until it reaches a maximum point, which we call the peak oil point. Then…show more content…
This is an example of how the does a country’s history affect the production trend and in return affect the forecast method done by Hubbert model (inaccuracies). In 1958 Nigeria started with a production rate of 5,100 BPD of crude oil. From this time till 1966 oil and gas multinational companies drilled 352 appraisal wells and out of these they completed 296 wells and also they drilled development wells. And thus the slight rise in oil production up till 1970. Then from 1970 to 1979 oil production in Nigeria experienced a huge boost, which attracted investors at the time. In 1980, overproduction of oil caused the global demand to decrease, which in return caused the world market to have excess oil. Accordingly, this caused a six-year oil price reduction. Oil prices have dropped by 46% of its original price in 1986 and thus causing the annual production to decrease by 12.6 million barrels. Nigeria’s annual production back then fell by 5.10 million barrels per dollar.Huge offshore discoveries where made in the Niger Delta between the years of 1990 and1999. These discoveries increased oil production from 1.2 MMSTB/D to 1.8…show more content…
The failure to achieve the target was caused by the shut in of eighty-eight wells in Ogoni land due to the suspension of SPDC activities. Moreover, between 2010 and 2012 the industry completed 140 appraisal wells and 3,152 development wells. This caused Nigeria to be one of the most producing countries. As of January 1, 2013, Nigeria is contributing 2.8% and 1.3% of global daily oil and gas, but OPEC production quota (political constrain), Petroleum Industry Bill issues, and criminal activities such as pipeline vandalism, violence in the Niger Delta creeks, kidnapping of oil workers, and community unrest; causes Nigeria not to meet its fullest potential. However, with improvement in technology, knowledge of the basin, economics, and policy incentives, Nigeria’s crude oil production has increased steadily. This source would discuss other oil production forecasting methods used over time. First of these methods are the modified versions of the Hubbert model. For example, Hallock et

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